Energy & Environment
by Dr. Amara Okafor, Energy Security Fellow — July 23, 2026
The global transition toward renewable energy sources is reshaping geopolitical dynamics and creating new security challenges. As nations seek to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels, new dependencies are emerging on critical minerals, rare earth elements, and the manufacturing capacity for clean energy technologies. This analysis examines how energy transitions affect traditional power structures, resource competition, and the strategic calculus of nations dependent on fossil fuel exports.
The shift to renewable energy is fundamentally altering the geopolitical landscape. Unlike fossil fuels, which are concentrated in specific regions, renewable energy resources are more widely distributed. This diffusion of energy resources has the potential to democratize energy access and reduce the leverage of traditional petrostates. However, the transition is not eliminating energy geopolitics but rather transforming it.
China has positioned itself as the dominant player in the clean energy supply chain. Chinese companies control the majority of solar panel, wind turbine, and battery manufacturing capacity globally. Beijing's dominance in the processing of critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements creates potential leverage over nations dependent on clean energy technologies. The global community faces the risk of exchanging dependence on Middle Eastern oil for dependence on Chinese-manufactured clean energy components.
The energy transition requires massive quantities of critical minerals. A single electric vehicle battery requires approximately 8 kilograms of lithium, 14 kilograms of cobalt, and 20 kilograms of manganese. Utility-scale battery storage requires even larger quantities of these minerals, along with nickel and graphite. The global demand for lithium is projected to increase by over 40 times by 2040 under scenarios consistent with climate goals.
The geographic concentration of these minerals creates significant vulnerabilities. The Democratic Republic of Congo produces over 70% of global cobalt, with a significant portion being mined under conditions of conflict and child labor. China controls a substantial share of lithium processing capacity, and its ownership of critical mineral assets in Africa and Latin America continues to grow. Australia, Chile, and Argentina hold significant lithium reserves, presenting opportunities for diversified supply chains.
For the United States and its allies, reducing dependence on fossil fuel imports has long been a national security objective. The energy transition offers the prospect of greater energy independence through domestic renewable energy production and electrification. However, this independence depends on the ability to secure supply chains for the technologies that enable the transition, from solar panels to battery storage systems.
The strategic importance of energy resilience is becoming increasingly apparent in the context of hybrid warfare. Russia's weaponization of natural gas supplies to Europe in 2022 highlighted the security risks of energy dependencies. The response a rapid acceleration of renewable energy deployment to reduce dependence on Russian gas demonstrated that the energy transition is not merely an environmental priority but a security imperative.
Policymakers should pursue a comprehensive approach that addresses the security implications of the energy transition. Key priorities include diversifying supply chains for critical minerals through international partnerships; investing in domestic processing and manufacturing capacity, including through the Defense Production Act; strengthening international governance frameworks for critical mineral extraction and trade; supporting energy transition in developing nations to reduce dependence on fossil fuel revenues; and advancing energy storage and grid modernization technologies.
The energy transition represents one of the most significant transformations of the global economy since the Industrial Revolution. Its security implications extend across every domain of international relations. Understanding and managing these implications is essential for ensuring that the transition to a clean energy future enhances rather than undermines global security.
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